Friends Across Borders: Exit-Polling Mission

Purpose

The purpose of the Election Observer Mission is to conduct exitpolling national wide, covering all regions and all types of polling stations. We will conduct exit-polling at 4 different polling stations in each of the 6 regions: Minsk (Minsk city and oblast counted as one region), Mogilev, Gomel, Brest, Grodno and Vitebsk.

In each region we will conduct exit-polling at 2 polling stations placed in the regional capital (urban), one in a medium size city in the region and 1 polling station in a village (rural). Totally 24 polling stations.

The election takes place, not only on the Election Day, Sunday 19th itself, but during the whole week. The voters can vote from Tuesday 14th to Sunday 19th.

The exit-polling mission, therefore consist of two parts, during the Early Voting Period and on the Election Day itself. We will send in a limited number of early voting Period observers (30), while the large group of observers (100) will conduct exitpolling only on the Election Day.

After the end of the exit-polling Sunday, the 24 teams of International Observers will gather in the 6 regional capitals. Depending on different post-election scenarios the observers in the regions, will be taken either to Minsk or remain in the regional capitals for some days, to monitor the potential aftermath of the Election there.

Track Record

The Election Observation Mission is lead by Danish SILBA and DSU. We have been preparing this mission for quite some time. SILBA have been involved in Belarus since 1999 and have conducted more than 100 seminars inside and with Belarussen participants since 2003. From 2003-2006 a total budget of 9 mill dkk (1.5 mill dollars) have been granted. In 2004 SILBA sent 100 observers to Belarus to conduct Exit Polling at 24 polling stations national wide. The mission plan from 2004 is now being repeated only in an improved quality. Danish Social Democratic Youth (DSU) has joined forces with SILBA since the summer 2005 on a joint Belarus project called "Friends Across Borders - Belarus 2006". They have in a short time gained quite a bit of experience in working with Belarus as well. Together we believe that we posses a significant organizational experience and organizational size to take upon us this mission.

We had observers in the Duma Election in Kaliningrad in December 2003, at the Belarus Parliament Election in October 2004, at the Azerbajdjan Parliament Elections in November 2005 and at the Duma Election in Moscow in December 2005. See pictures from the missions at www.silba.dk.

Structure

The Exit-Polling Mission is structured with:

- A Minsk HQ with Russian and English speaking staff
- A Vilnius HQ with Russian and English speaking staff
- A Kiev HQ with Russian and English speaking staff
- 6 Regional Managers with Russian-English Interpreters
- 24 Polling Station Managers with 1-2 local observers/interpreters and 1-2 international observers
- A number of International Journalists
- A number of Members of National Parliaments and European Parliament

Staff functions

The management of the Election Polling Mission will be done by 3 staff offices:

The Vilnius Office takes care of:

10.03 Setting up the HQ in Vilnius
11.03-12.03 Seminar for Regional Managers and Polling Station managers
12.03 Sending in the Early Voting Observer team (24 Polling Station Managers + 6 Regional Managers)
13.03-18-03 Registration of the Polling Results of the "Early Voting Period"
10.03-17-03 Briefing of Journalists before they are sent into Belarus
16.03-17.03 Seminar for Exit-Pollers
17.03-18.03 Sending the Exit-Pollers into Belarus
17.03 Briefing VIP observers before they are sent into Belarus
19.03 Registration of Polling Results on Election Day
19.03 Publication of the Exit-Polling results
20.03 Press Conference in Vilnius
20.03-25.03 Withdrawal of Exit-Pollers

The Kiev Office takes care of:

16.03-17.03 Seminar for Exit-Pollers
17.03 Sending the Exit-Pollers into Belarus
20.03 Press Conference in Kiev
20.03-25.03 Withdrawal of Exit-Pollers
24.03.25.03 Forwarding Exit-Pollers to Donetsk and Odessa as Election Observers

The Minsk Office takes care of:

11.03-25.03 Receiving journalists, organising interviews for journalists
12.03 Receiving the Regional Managers and Polling Station Managers. Guided tour in Minsk
12.03 Sending Regional Managers and Polling Station Managers to their destinations
18.03 Receiving the Exit-Pollers and sending them to their destinations
18.03 Receiving the VIP observers. Management of the VIP programme
19.03 Management of the VIP programme
20.03 Receiving the Exit-Pollers, Polling Station Managers and Regional Managers from the regions
21.03-25.03 Sending the Regional Managers, Pollings Station Managers, Exit-Pollers, Journalists and VIP's home.

Programme

Friday 10th of March to Saturday 18th of March - Early Voting Period Observers.

The Minsk staff (4), 6 Regional Managers and 24 Polling Station Managers will arrive to Vilnius Friday 10th Be in Vilnius during the weekend for preparations and a seminar. They will arrive to Minsk Sunday 12th and to their regions Monday 13th. Tuesday 14th Exit-Polling will be conducted at the same 24 polling stations which will be used Sunday 19th. The early voting period observers will prepare the arrival of the International Exit-Pollers.

Thursday 16th and Friday 17th - Seminar in Kiev and Vilnius for International Exit-Pollers.

We will hold 2 identical seminars, one in Vilnius and the other in Kiev for all International Exit-Pollers. Only Journalists and VIP observer can go without this seminar (they will be given special treatment in Minsk).

Sunday 19th of March

Exit-Polling will be conducted at 24 polling stations all around Belarus. In the evening we will either send the observers back to Minsk or keep them in the regions. It mainly depends whether the night trains will run that night or if they will be cancelled in order to avoid that oppositional demonstrants from the regions go to Minsk to join the demonstrations. Demonstrations at the October square are expected to start Sunday evening when the official election result is announced.

Monday 20th of March

Demonstrations are expected to take place in Minsk, and train connections might be shut down from the regions to Minsk, making it impossible to bring our people to Minsk. We are quite experienced in Belarus logistics and will find ways of dealing with the logistic challenges. However if for instance all border crossings are closed down, for both ingoing and outgoing traffic, we might not be able to perform miracles and get everybody out as they please.

Each international observer will be asked to let us know when he/she absolutely has to be back home, or if he/she actually would like to stay additional days in Belarus. We can normally get people out and home if that is what they want, but we can also keep them in Belarus for a number of days, depending on their wish.

Transportation to Kiev / Vilnius

All observers will arrive to Belarus via Kiev or Vilnius. Only journalists and VIP observers can be brought to Belarus with direct flights.

Staff - Regional Managers and Polling Station Managers

All Staff Members, Regional Managers and Polling Station Managers are either Danes or Swedes

All Staff Members, Regional Managers and Polling Station Managers will go via Vilnius, Friday 10th of March, to prepare for two days before entering Belarus to be spread out the their final destinations.

Returnal to Denmark / Sweden will happen on individual planned conditions. Some will choose to go back ASAP, other properly will choose to continue to Ukraine to monitor that election as well.

SILBA-DSU will buy (and pay) all plane tickets from Denmark / Sweden as electronic tickets and send these to the individuals. Tickets will mainly be bought as one-way tickets, so that each individual have the opportunity to change plans for the home transportation, depending on how the post-election situation in Belarus develops.

International Exit-Pollers

The 30-40 volunteer international exit-pollers from all over Europe shall buy and pay (will NOT be refunded) their own plane ticket to either Kiev or Vilnius.

We demand that everybody arrives to either Kiev or Vilnius Wednesday night, 15th of March or Thursday the 16th of March in the morning (scheduled arrival before 12:00).

Depending on personal plans, we advice that our people only buy a one-way ticket to Kiev/Vilnius, or to consider a flexible return ticket. This gives them the flexibility to change their plans, if an exiting revolution all of a sudden breaks out or if they get stuck somewhere because trains are shut down to prevent demonstrations in the capital.

We will need to know which kind of ticket our people have bought, so that observers with unchangeable return tickets or important duties at home can be given first priority when drawing out our observers to observers with more flexible plans.

Observers with less flexible plans will be sent to regions from where it is easier to get them out again. If they have a fixed return ticket from Kiev, we won't send them to a village in the northern Vitebsk region, from where returnal can be interrupted by multiple factors. (We have a total overview of all domestic and international trains and busses).

Note that it may very well be possible for observers to buy a one way ticket to Vilnius but choose to fly home from Kiev, so that they get to see both cities on the way.

Transport from the Airport

We will organize transportation from the airport to the hotels in Kiev and Vilnius. Considering the number of people arriving, people might be asked to wait for a short while in the airport, until we can fill a car. In Vilnius the trip is a short one, why we can go to and from the airport all the time. But from Kiev Borispol airport to the centre it takes half an hour not counting travel jams. Driving 30-40 observers to and from the centre individually would require numerous cars. We will gather people in small groups and take them together.

Transportation to Belarus from Kiev or Vilnius

After the introduction seminars in Kiev and Vilnius, all observers will be sent to Belarus in smaller groups in public busses and trains. Some will stay in Minsk to observer there, others will be sent further to regions to observe there.

Transportation from Belarus back to Vilnius or Kiev will be done by busses, trains, cars, or what ever it takes.

Accommodation in Kiev and Vilnius

Accommodation in Kiev and Vilnius will be provided from Wednesday Night 15th of March until observers leave for Belarus. Our people will be staying in 2 room hotel rooms **.

Accommodation in Belarus

As Belarus is not yet a tourist overrun country, hotel capacity is quite limited. As OSCE is expected to send quite a significant number of observers to Belarus, all the good hotels will be taken.

We are already now considering accommodation in all regions. We hope to put all observers in the same region in the same hotel, but will not make promises yet. Polling stations however are chosen so that they are situated as close to each other as possible, making joint meetings in the evening possible.

Please note that planning things ahead in Belarus is quite difficult, and that some hotels are reluctant to hosting foreigners. Observers will be put in 2 person hotel rooms. The quality of the hotel will most likely differ from region to region, depending on the local possibilities.

NB: All foreigners need to register with the local authorities upon arrival, either by checking in to a authorized hotel or by registering at the police station. Private accommodation is therefore not an option, as you will then need to register at the local police station, which potentially takes half a day, which will then have to be done on Election Day…

We will pay for all accommodation planned by us. We do not cover accommodation chosen by individual observers, due to individual wishes of a better quality accommodation, nor will we cover the difference between our price and the price found by the individual observer. If they change their accommodation, they leave the mission and the right for further financial support.

We do not accept that people leave their hotel to live with a private family on their own initiative. The Election Observation Mission is the purpose of the trip; it is not a paid opportunity to see old friends again (which someone used it as in 2004). We need to know where everybody is at all times. We do not want to use phone resources on coordinating the plans of the local polling station team with peoples private plans.

Meals

We cover the expenses for all meals. Some meals will take place at the hotel, other at restaurants chosen by the Regional Managers or Polling Station Managers and paid by us. For some meals people might be given per diems (small sum of money) and asked to eat in smaller groups for the sake of flexibility or the need to cover a task in rotating miniteams.

Please note that if a meal is taking place at a restaurant chosen by a manager, then expenses are not covered if people choose to eat at another place, nor is the difference between the prices covered. The manager has enough things on his/her mind already.

Polling Stations

We have soon identified all the 24 polling station which we will use. They are chosen so that we statistically cover the country systematically. Polling stations are also chosen so that they are situated as close to each other as possible. 

People will be sent to a polling station chosen by us. They do not have the possibility to go somewhere else, just because they would rather to see a village, or want to be in a city where they can buy shoes.

Why all these demands

All these demands may sound harsh, but from experience we know that a mission with 100 people with individual needs, is a logistic nightmare.

We urge the individual observer to respect that security of all observers and the need to have an overview in the HQ's comes prior to their individual wish to see this or that museum or to be together with this or that personal friend or interesting good looking Belarussen girl, or whatever completely irrelevant obscure wishes, people have actually presented us with during the years. We simply don't have time or resources for all that.

In 2004 we discovered during the mission that a number of observers had traveled to other regions on their own, even with out informing us, because they "would rather be somewhere else". One observer actually left Belarus on Election Day at 12:00, because now she had seen Minsk, and never really wanted to be an observer anyway…

We actually lost track of some observers for several hours and spend hundreds of Euros in mobile phone calls trying to locate them again. That is a totally irresponsible behavior and completely unacceptable for us, while at the same time everybody expects us to perform miracles and have the complete overview at all time. If just one observer changes location, it has consequences for hotel booking, gender balance in hotel rooms, prepaid tickets, plans or return transportation, nationality combination at polling stations and worse of all that we have to spend hours and hours of phone calls trying to find people, calling 24 different managers for 1 Euro per minute.

Visas

All observers will get ordinary tourist visas. We are currently opening a postbox to which they will send their passport, one passport photo and personal information.

When accepted as an observer by us, people will be provided with further information.

Accreditation? Will we be allowed to observer at all?

Our observers will NOT be accredited by the Belarus authorities. The only accredited election Observers will be from OSCE, CIS and other official international observer institutions.

But "not being accredited" does not means that we operate illegally. There is a large grey zone in between. In 2004 we had 100 observers in Belarus with the full knowledge and acceptance by the Belarus authorities with absolutely no accreditation. They arrived to Belarus with tourist visas, to a country where almost no tourists go. We had no problems getting visa, only 3 out of 109 applications were denied. The week before the election, the central election commission announced that Independent Exit Polling would be allowed and expected. However this news did not reach all polling stations. We therefore brought Minsk newspapers announcing the news and showed the articles to the local election commissions. That solved most of the problems. In most Minsk polling stations we were treated very nicely, some places even invited indoor, drinking coffee with the Election Commission. But in the Mogilev region, our observers were arrested Saturday for violation of the traffic rules and spent the entire day at the police station before being allowed to go. One Lithuanian Observer there was deported and had to leave within 24 hours. This time round the Central Elections Committee have already stated that exit-polling is legal and acceptable - just to be on the safe side we'll bring the Minsk newspapers again though.

The experiences from 2004 shows that the reaction can differ quite a bit from polling station to polling station. We will therefore send our long time observers to the exact same polling station already from Tuesday which will be used Sunday. We expect that they will build up an understanding at the polling station that International Independent Election Observation is a totally natural part of a normal election Process, which should if not be supported locally, then at least be accepted. We might not be offered coffee, but as long as we are not chased off the ground, we will view it as acceptance.

The 2005 presidential election differs significally from the previous elections in Belarus. Not only the opposition sees this as their last chance of turning Belarus into a democracy. President Lukashenko also faces a situation where EU has changed their position towards the Belarus government. Both the EU Parliament and the EU commission have sharpened their position and direct boycott of Belarus is discussed. With the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis in fresh memory Lukashenko needs to make Belarus less dependent of Russia, if he wish to be able to govern Belarus with the same level of independence as he has done so far.

Trade with EU has grown in the past couple of years, so that Russia and EU have equal importance. As it is clear to everybody than Russia will not be able to continue to sponsor Belarus with artificial low gas and petrol prices forever, if Russia wants to join the WTO, Lukashenka needs to find other sources of income. Ordinary cross border import-export with EU countries is the obvious solution.

It is president Lukachenkos official stated intention to use the election to show all the world that he won yet another "elegant victory" (he have recently used the same expression as the head of the election commission used in 2004). An elegant victory means 75-80 pct. Getting less than this to an almost unknown oppositional opponent who have only had 6-7 weeks to campaign, would not be a victory but - a defeat. In order to prove to the outside world that he won, he will need more than just his own television and the official voting result, who everybody will claim was faked. The OSCE combined with independent Exitpolling is crucial to anyone who wants to prove anything, considering that the OSCE last year stated that the 2004 election "fell short of international standards" as they so diplomatically puts it.

Denying visa to, denied access across the border or obstructions of the possibility for International Observers from 20-25 different European countries to observe, at this for Belarus so crucial time in history, would be a really really bad introduction to increasing the trade with Europe.

We work under the assumption that allowing for instance one Spanish observer access to Belarus to make exit polling at one polling station out of 6.500 makes a lot less damage to the Belarus authorities, than denying the same Spanish observer visa or to give the Spanish observer a negative impression of the Belarus authorities by obstructing the exit polling activities at the local polling station.

Most of the observers are expected to come from the leading ranks of the national level of political youth organisations or to be active members of national NGOs. Such active involved people have a tendency of being able and quite interested in getting personal press coverage… The last thing Belarus needs at the moment is a Europe wide negative press coverage initiated by 30-40 young Europeans who went to Belarus as observers and who is now taking personal revenge because they felt harassed when in Belarus or didn't go at all because they were denied visa.… young people who are all of a sudden promoted to "Persona Non Gratae" (PNG) from an interesting country have a tendency of being able to get nice press coverage…

Negative press coverage especially in southern Europe, who's EU-parliamentarians are less enthusiastic about a boycott against Belarus and sanctions towards the country, would be water on the mill of those countries urging for more sanctions. A shut off of for instance Belarus' access to resell Russian gas and cheap petrol to the European country, could in some analysts mind bankrupt Belarus in just a few month.

So yes… we expect to be granted visas and we expect to be able to conduct the exitpollings… just as we have been granted hundreds of visas the last years. We pose no threat to the Belarus authorities, unless we are denied access.